Budget Deal Moving Ahead, Despite Outrage on the Right
The bipartisan deal to suspend the debt ceiling and increase federal spending over the next two years will get a vote in the House on Thursday, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) said late Tuesday. Leaders in both parties have expressed confidence that the bill will pass before lawmakers leave town for their August recess.
"We're gonna pass it," Hoyer told reporters. "I think we'll get a good number [of votes]. I don't know if it's gonna be huge, but we're gonna pass it."
President Trump announced that he backs the deal, removing one possible hurdle for the bill. “Budget Deal gives great victories to our Military and Vets, keeps out Democrat poison pill riders. Republicans and Democrats in Congress need to act ASAP and support this deal,” he tweeted Tuesday evening.
Despite widespread agreement that the bill will pass, however, not everyone is on board.
Grumbles from the left: Some progressive Democrats have been critical of the deal, portraying it as too easy on Republicans. Worried that the agreement could set up a budget crisis in 2021, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) said he was “concerned that it was a two-year deal. Why not a one year deal?... It seems like it’s basically handcuffing the next president.” Other liberals, noting that Democratic leaders have agreed to avoid “poison pill” riders on controversial issues such as abortion and funding for the border wall in the funding bills that must pass this fall, lamented their loss of leverage in those negotiations.
Outrage on the right: Resistance to the deal was more pronounced on the right, with the hardline House Freedom Caucus announcing Tuesday that it would not support the bill due to concerns about the growing national debt. “Our country is undeniably headed down a path of fiscal insolvency and rapidly approaching $23 trillion in debt. … All sides should go back to the drawing board and work around the clock, canceling recess if necessary, on a responsible budget agreement that serves American taxpayers better—not a $323 billion spending frenzy with no serious offsets,” the 31-member group said in a statement.
The deficit hawks at the Committee for Responsible Federal published “Five Reasons to Oppose the Budget Deal,” which include its purported $1.7 trillion cost over 10 years. CRFB noted that the agreement would increase discretionary spending by 21 percent during President Trump’s first term, pushing such spending to near-record levels.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) was more colorful in his criticism, saying, “You don’t have to be Euclid to understand the math here. We’re like Thelma and Louise in that car headed toward the cliff.” Nevertheless, Kennedy said he would consider supporting the deal.
Is the deficit hawk dead? The budget deal represents “the culmination of years of slipping fiscal discipline in Washington,” said Robert Costa and Mike DeBonis of The Washington Post, and it highlights the declining influence of fiscal conservatives in the capital, at least as far as policy is concerned. Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) said the Republican Party’s credibility on fiscal restraint is “long gone.”
Although it may be too early to declare the fiscal hawk extinct – plenty of critics say the bird will return as soon as there’s a Democratic president – it certainly seems to be in ill health. As the University of Virginia's Larry Sabato said Wednesday: “A battered bird has been named to the list of endangered species. The ‘deficit hawk’ is on the road to extinction. Rarely spotted around Washington, D.C., the deficit hawk’s last remaining habitat is found in some state capitals.”
Some Republicans said that fiscal conservatism was never really a core Republican value, dating back to President Reagan’s tax-cut-and-spend policies, and that Paul Ryan’s emphasis on fiscal issues was an aberration. “It was never the party of Paul Ryan,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich told the Post. “He’s a brilliant guy, but he filled a policy gap. The reality here is that Republicans were never going to get spending cuts with Speaker Pelosi running the House, and they didn’t want an economic meltdown or shutdown this summer.”
Is the whole debate missing the point? William Gale of the Brookings Institution, who served on President George H.W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers, said he wasn’t sure why the budget deal was producing so much hostility, since it basically maintains the status quo and – more importantly – is focused solely on discretionary spending. “There *is* a long-term budget issue,” Gale tweeted Tuesday, “but cutting [discretionary spending] is not the way to go.”
Instead, Gale says that any serious fiscal plan must focus on the mandatory side of the ledger, where the rapidly increasing costs of health care and retirement are straining against revenues reduced by repeated rounds of tax cuts. Gale recommends a combination of entitlement reductions and revenue increases – a standard mix of policy options that faces an uncertain future, with well-entrenched interest groups standing opposed to movement in either direction.
A Red-Hot Tesla Burns Rubber on Consumer Reports
The Tesla Model S P85D sedan just broke the Consumer Reports rating system.
By definition, a car can’t exceed a score of 100 on the road test. But after the P85D racked up a score of 103, Consumer Reports was forced to create a new benchmark for the system and overhaul the ratings process according to a news release. The new system caused the car to slip to a score of 100.
A few characteristics of the car that allowed it to perform better in the test than any other car ever before include its rapid acceleration ability (0 to 60 mph in 3.5 seconds), its remarkable energy-efficiency (the car gets the equivalent of 87 miles per gallon) and its better breaking and handling system than the former top-scoring standard Model S. Two years ago, the base model version of the Model S received a 99 out of 100, which at the time was the highest rating ever for a vehicle.
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The report is careful to note that even with a perfect score, the Tesla isn’t a perfect car. Besides a price tag of $127,820, beyond the means of the average person and the most expensive car Consumer Reports has ever reviewed, the car is louder than the base Model S and isn’t as plush as other luxury vehicles.
In addition, a long drive might be problematic if there aren’t any nearby charging stations along the route due to the vehicle’s 200-plus mile range. The rating also doesn’t account for the Tesla’s reliability, but the Model S comes with average reliability, according to owner-survey responses.
Imperfections aside, the car received an enviable final assessment. “It’s a remarkable car that paves a new, unorthodox course, and it’s a powerful statement of American startup ingenuity,” the report reads.
North Dakota Police Can Now Legally Use Taser Drones
It’s a classic case of unintended consequences. A Republican lawmaker in North Dakota put forth legislation meant to prevent law enforcement officials from using unmanned aerial vehicles to conduct surveillance on private property without a warrant. It was transformed by fellow lawmakers into a bill allowing the police to mount Tasers, pepper spray, sound cannons and other “less-than-lethal” weapons on flying drones.
The legislation, House Bill 1328, was passed and signed into law earlier this year, but got little attention until this week, when a Daily Beast report pointed out the implications of the legislation: Law enforcement officers many miles away from suspects could have the authority to stun or otherwise incapacitate them.
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To be clear, the fact that something like this is technically legal doesn’t mean that state and local police departments will necessarily embrace the practice of remotely subduing suspects. Police officers are generally subject to local and departmental rules that can substantially limit what tactics are allowed.
The original version of the bill included language that would have barred law enforcement from mounting weapons of any kind on a drone: “A state agency may not authorize the use of, including granting a permit to use, an unmanned aircraft armed with any lethal or nonlethal weapons, including firearms, pepper spray, bean bag guns, mace, and sound-based weapons,” it said.
Supporters of the state’s police union introduced an amendment to the bill that would allow less-than-lethal weapons to be mounted on drones, according to the Daily Beast’s Justin Glawe. The amended bill was ultimately passed and signed into law.
Related: Europe Faces Up to Flight Safety Threat Posed by Drones
State Rep. Rick Becker this spring voiced his dismay at the changes to the bill in a public hearing, saying, “In my opinion there should be a nice, red line: Drones should not be weaponized. Period.”
Drones have, of course, been weaponized for years — the strikes just haven’t been in the U.S. If North Dakota is taking the lead, however, that might be about to change.
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Why Big Salary Raises May Be Gone for Good
If you’re hoping for a big raise this year, prepare to be disappointed. Sure, you might be among the lucky people who get a healthy bump in salary, but a recent survey by professional services firm Towers Watson found that companies are planning pay raises of 3 percent on average for workers.
A new survey by human resources and management consultancy Aon Hewitt confirms that forecast: Even as the job market continues to improve, salaried employees can expect their base pay to increase 3 percent, or about a percentage point smaller than the raises employers were handing out 20 years ago.
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From 1996 through 2000, salaries went up by about 4.1 percent a year, according to Aon Hewitt data. From 2011 through 2015, annual raises have averaged about 2.8 percent. And even as we get further away from the recession, that downward shift appears to be permanent, as companies look to keep a lid on their fixed costs.
"The modest increases we've seen over the past 20 years are an indication that employers have changed their compensation strategies for good, and we shouldn't expect to see salary increases revert back to 4 percent or higher levels that were commonplace in the past," said Aon Hewitt’s Ken Abosch.
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On the bright side, at least for some workers, employers are planning on doling out more money in the form of bonuses, cash awards and other so-called variable pay. Aon Hewitt’s survey found that workers will see their variable pay rise by 12.9 percent this year.
That shift favors higher-level white-collar workers, since companies have been cutting back on bonus and incentive pay for clerical or technical workers. In 2011, only 43 percent of companies gave bonuses or other cash incentives to those hourly workers eligible for overtime pay, down from 61 percent in 2009, according to data Aon Hewitt shared with The Washington Post. On the other hand, 93 percent of companies offer incentive programs to employees with a fixed salary.
As Abosch told the Post: “It’s the haves and the have nots.”
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Retirement? Bah! Let’s Spend it Now
Americans may be taking their #YOLO lifestyle a bit too far. You do only live once, after all, but most people also only get one shot at retirement.
More than a third of Americans say that they’re not saving for tomorrow because they are unwilling to sacrifice their quality of life today and would rather spend their money on things like dinners and vacations, according to a new study by Charles Schwab.
Maintaining their current lifestyle was the number one reason that people aren’t saving for retirement, followed by unexpected expenses (31 percent), covering monthly bills (31 percent), and paying off credit card debt (24 percent).
Even if they’re not prioritizing saving for retirement, they do want to work for a company that offers a retirement plan. Nine in 10 of those surveyed said that they would think twice about taking a job if the company did not offer a 401(k) plan, and 80 percent said they wouldn’t be confident in their ability to save for retirement without a 401(k) plan.
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Those who do have 401(k) plans said they don’t feel they’re getting enough guidance. Nearly half of those surveyed said that the materials explaining investment options are more confusing than those explaining health and medical benefits.
More than two-thirds of employees said that they want personalized investment counseling, but only 12 percent are currently getting professional advice. About half of those surveyed said that they would expect better performance if they used professional advice.
Nearly three-quarters of people said they’d rather have their 401(k) balance grow by 15 percent this year than lose 15 pounds. Maybe if they stopped eating dinners out, they could have both.
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Diamond Prices Are Falling, but Don’t Rush to Buy an Engagement Ring
Diamond prices are getting slashed, but that doesn’t mean you should run out to the jewelry store right now.
De Beers, the world’s largest producer and distributor of diamonds by value, is cutting diamond prices by as much as 9 percent, according to Bloomberg.
Diamond prices have already slumped over the past year as demand has fallen, partly as a result of the economic slowdown in China, the second-biggest market for the precious stones.
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De Beers, which is a unit of mining giant Anglo American and controls one-third of the global diamond market, initially tried to stabilize prices by ramping down its production. It had started the year with a production goal of 34 million carats, but has twice slashed the goal to a current 29 million to 31 million carats.
That hasn’t been enough to counterbalance sagging demand, so De Beers says it will invest in a holiday marketing campaign in an attempt to boost consumer interest. The campaign will be focused in the U.S. and China, the world’s two leading diamond markets, and will primarily target men buying diamond jewelry gifts for their partners.
In other words, you can expect to see a whole lot of diamond commercials soon — and in an interview with The Fiscal Times, one diamond industry expert predicted that the industry’s struggles will lead at least some retailers to cut prices this holiday season.
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The De Beers price cuts probably won’t have much effect on prices at high-end jewelry retailers such as Tiffany’s, though. These stores only purchase gems from a limited number of producers and since the diamonds they use are higher in value, their prices aren’t as vulnerable to market pressures as less valuable stones.
But it never hurts to look, right?
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