Why Believing Donald Trump Will Be the GOP Nominee Is Delusional

Why Believing Donald Trump Will Be the GOP Nominee Is Delusional

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump listens to a question at the Family Leadership Summit in Ames
REUTERS/Jim Young
By Eric Pianin

Despite his commanding lead at this early stage among GOP candidates, the 2016 nomination is anyone’s game. 

It is risky to put too much stock in the latest findings, including the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday. That’s because the national telephone survey of 1,000 adults included only 252 registered voters who said they would vote for a Republican, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.17 points.

Related: Why Jeb Bush’s Pragmatic Immigration Plan Has No Chance of Passing in the House

There are plenty of downsides to Trump’s candidacy – including his threat to mount a third-party campaign if he is denied the Republican nomination -- which has alarmed GOP leaders who are looking down the road to the general election.

Trump has the highest negatives of any of the top tier candidates, and a majority of Americans in the survey said they think Trump is hurting the Republican Party. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of Democrats interviewed said Trump was harming his party’s image, but nearly half the Republicans interviewed said the same thing.

Political analyst Nate Silver notes that Trump ranks just 13th in overall favorability among Republicans in a series of national polls. “If you’re going to imply that a candidate is popular based on their receiving 20 percent of the vote, you ought to consider what the other 80 percent thinks about him,” Silver wrote recently in his FiveThirtyEight blog. “Most Republicans who don’t plan to vote for Trump are skeptical of him instead.”

Related: Donald Trump Just Showed Why His Campaign Is Doomed

What’s more, about three in four Latinos said they have a negative view of Trump – and that more than half consider his comments about lawless Mexican immigrants to be racist or highly inappropriate, according to a separate NBC News/Wall Street Journal Telemundo poll released today.

The survey of 250 Hispanic-American voters revealed widespread hostility towards Trump, with only 13 percent saying they have a positive view of him.

The Republican presidential frontrunner has said repeatedly that many Latino voters “love” and support him, and that he would win the majority of that vote if he ends up as his party’s nominee. There is little evidence in this poll to suggest Trump is dealing with reality.

Top Reads from The Fiscal Times:

3 Dumb Moves That Can Hurt Your Career

New Line Cinema
By Brian O'Connell, MainStreet

What's the most common way to breach workplace etiquette and curb your career growth, if not derail it altogether?

AccountTemps says employers and staffers don't always see office etiquette the same. But bosses certainly have more leverage in the matter, since they can fire employees who buck the rules, and a company survey finds U.S. chief financial officers are most often bugged by workers "being distracted" on the job (27% of CFOs say so) and "gossiping about colleagues" (18%).

Other top offenses cited by CFOs:

      • Not responding to calls or emails.
      • Being late to meetings, or missing them.
      • Not crediting other staffers when appropriate. 

    Employers and workers may not see the top etiquette breaches equally, but they agree on professional decorum more than they disagree, and the shared message is easy to sum up: "Most jobs today require teamwork and strong collaboration skills, and that means following the unwritten rules of office protocol," says Bill Driscoll, a district president of Accountemps. "Poor workplace etiquette demonstrates a lack of consideration for coworkers."

    Related: Modern Etiquette: Outclassing the Competition

    Of course, the list of workplace professional breaches exceeds the AccountTemps list.

    "I've seen it all," notes Nicole Williams, a workplace consultant and a career contributor to NBC's The Today Show. "Employees who lie on expense reports; who badmouth the company or boss on social media or to clients; proofreading mistakes; missing deadlines. Just to name a few."

    If you do trip up on the job, it's best to be accountable. "If you really screw up, you have to suffer the consequences in silence," Williams says. "Don't protest, don't try and get out of it, and don't put the blame on someone or something else. People will respect you more for owning your mistakes."

    This article originally appeared on Main Street

    Read More from Main Street

    This article originally appeared on Main Street.
    Read more from Main Street:  - See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/05/19/Why-Even-Rich-Millennials-Are-F...

    The Lucrative Business of SAT Test Prep Is About to Get Disrupted

    Flickr/Newton Free Library
    By Beth Braverman

    For years, critics of the SAT have claimed that wealthy students who can afford expensive, private test prep courses have a leg up on poorer students without access to such classes. 

    That just changed. Starting yesterday, all students can access free, high-quality online test prep via a new partnership between the College Board, which administers the test, and online course powerhouse Khan Academy, a nonprofit supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Ann and John Doerr among others. The online program will include quizzes, video lessons and personalized lessons. 

    The Official SAT Practice will focus on the recently redesigned SAT, with questions created by the tests’ authors.

    Related: SAT Tests: Another Drain on the Family Budget

    College test preparation is a $4.5 billion business. Private SAT tutors charge in excess of $100 per hour and classes from companies like Kaplan or Princeton Review run about $1,000. And those classes may help. Students from the wealthiest families have average test scores that are more than 300 points higher than students from the poorest families on average, according to the College Board.

    In recent years, more colleges have moved away from the SAT and its competitor, the ACT, as a backlash against the tests have grown. 

    More than 850 schools have made the tests optional for admission, according to advocacy group FairTest, choosing instead to focus on class grades and other factors. A study released last year of undergrads at those schools found no difference in either the GPAs or the graduation rates of students who took the SATs versus those that skipped it.

    Gas Prices This Summer Could Be Cheapest Since 2009

    By Beth Braverman

    Gas prices have been on a tear in recent weeks, hitting a national average this week of $2.75 per gallon, the highest price this year, but they’re poised to fall back down as the summer progresses, according to AAA

    The organization is predicting that the cost of gas could fall to its lowest levels since 2009, which is good news for travelers ready to hit the road. About 60 percent of Americans recently surveyed by AAA said they were more likely to take a long road trip this year is gas prices remain low. 

    While the national average price of gas remains well below $3 per gallon, and 87 percent of U.S. stations are selling gas for below that benchmark, consumers out west and in Hawaii are paying more. Prices in California are highest at $3.30, followed by Hawaii ($3.70) and Nevada ($3.30). 

    Related: Gas Prices or Economy, Experts Disagree on What Drives U.S. Demand 

    The average price for a gallon of gas last month was $2.69 per gallon, nearly a dollar less than the $3.66 it cost last May. Economists have been hoping for months that low energy prices would boost consumer spending, but Americans have been choosing to sock away their extra cash rather than spending it. 

    Personal spending was basically flat in April, falling less than 0.1 percent despite a slight increase in personal income. At the same time, the savings rate increased from 5.2 to 5.6 percent.

    Millennial Women are Taking Charge—at Work and at Home

    iStockphoto
    By Jennifer Liu, LearnVest

    According to a recent report from U.S. Trust, women at the top of the earnings ladder are not only making strides in the workplace, but they’re also taking charge of their households’ finances at higher rates.

    The national survey of 640 adults found that among high-net-worth individuals—defined as those with at least $3 million in investable assets—30% of Gen Y women are breadwinners in their households, and another 21% contribute the same amount of income to the household as their partners.

    Perhaps even more surprising? That’s true for Millennial women more than any other demo.

    Related: How Millennials Could Damage the U.S. Economy

    Compare that to the 11% of Gen X women and 15% of Baby Boomer women who earned more than their husbands.

    Likely a result, young women have a greater influence over their family’s money decisions than ever. Among today’s high-earning female Millennials, 31% are the primary decision-makers when it comes to their household’s wealth and investment planning. That’s considerably more than the 11% of Gen Xers and 9% of Boomer women who can say the same.

    Of course, these role changes don’t just affect women. As moms continue to earn more, about one in four Millennial fathers are more likely to be the primary caretakers of their children—a striking difference from the 7% of Gen X and 3% of Boomer dads who’ve undertaken the same responsibility.

    When Will the Consumer Spending Surge Finally Happen?

    iStockphoto
    By Yuval Rosenberg

    Economists have been waiting for a surge in consumer spending fueled by savings at the gas pump and a stronger job market boosting personal incomes. They’re going to have to keep waiting.

    The Commerce Department on Monday said personal spending was essentially flat in April —it fell less than 0.1 percent — even as personal income rose a better-than-expected 0.4 percent. Americans made more money in April but they didn’t spend more. Instead, they socked it away, raising the savings rate — personal savings as a percentage of disposable income — from 5.2 percent in March to 5.6 percent in April.

    Related: How Obamacare Could Be Squeezing Consumer Spending​​ 

    The April spending picture was the reverse of that from March, when incomes growth stalled but spending rose. Overall, though, Americans still look to be hesitant about opening up their wallets.

    “This report clearly indicates that the bounce back in March did not continue into April,” Chris G. Christopher, Jr., director of consumer economics at HIS Global Insight, said in a note to clients. “It is becoming blatantly obvious that the so-called consumer gasoline price dividend is not motivating the average American household to increase their discretionary spending in any meaningful manner.”

    Energy prices have risen lately, but they are still down 20 percent from where they were a year ago, notes PNC Senior Macroeconomist Gus Faucher. Eventually, that should still translate to more spending as long as the job market recovery continues apace.

    “Clearly, consumption is hardly booming, but the lag between declines in gas prices and the response in the spending numbers is long, typically six or seven months,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomcs, said in a note to clients. “Gas prices did begin to fall rapidly until November, with the biggest single drop in January, so we don't expect to see consumption accelerate properly until the summer.”

    For now, the economists — and the economy — keep waiting.

    Top Reads from The Fiscal Times: